The Surprisingly Stable GOP Senate Membership
The Trump era has actually seen LESS turnover--despite Cassidy-style purges
Presidential Purges
When I saw that Bill Cassidy, the GOP U.S. Senator from Louisiana, had lost his primary last week, the very first thing that came to my mind was: President Trump has succeeded in overhauling the Republican conference in the Senate.
As you probably know, Cassidy had voted to convict Trump in the 2021 impeachment trial and had been too independent for the administration’s tastes (even though he voted to confirm Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for HHS Secretary despite serious misgivings).
This was just the latest instance of the president’s purging a GOP member who failed to do as the president wanted. I quickly cobbled together a list of former Republican senators who had run afoul of the president and soon found themselves no longer members of the US Senate: Burr, Corker, Flake, Sessions, Isakson, Toomey, Romney…
By the Numbers
So how thoroughly has President Trump remade that Republican conference?
An easy way to assess this is to simply compare the list of Republicans in the U.S. Senate today to the list a decade ago—before Trump was elected president. In other words, what percentage of Republican U.S. Senators in 2016 are still Republican U.S. Senators in 2026?1
Before doing this, I needed a few reference points. So I asked the same question about the previous two decades.
What percentage of Republican U.S. Senators in 1996 were still Republican U.S. Senators in 2006?2
What percentage of Republican U.S. Senators in 2006 were still Republican U.S. Senators in 2016?3
In 1996, the GOP had 55 U.S. Senators.4 By 2006, 25 of them were still in the Senate.5 That’s a 45% retention rate.
In 2006, the GOP had 55 U.S. Senators. By 2016, 20 of them were still in the Senate.6 That’s 36% retention rate
OK, now for the Trump era…
In 2016, the GOP had 54 U.S. Senators. By 2026, 29 of them were still in the Senate.7 That’s 54% retention rate.
To my surprise, the membership of the GOP conference has been less changed during the 10-year Trump era than either of the previous two decades.
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Not the Entire Story
These numbers, however, don’t tell the whole story. GOP senators in 2016 who disagreed with Donald Trump’s policy preferences and/or behavior didn’t have to fight with the president and then get purged. They could have swallowed hard and then aligned themselves with the new administration. That, of course, is the other way that Trump has shaped the conference.
Indeed, many GOP senators who stayed in office from 2016 to 2026 have “evolved” in this way, perhaps most notably Lindsey Graham, Mike Lee, and Ted Cruz.
Several of those who have continued to spar with Trump are heading for the door: McConnell (retirement), Tillis (retirement), Cassidy (defeated).
A couple others (notably Murkowski and Collins) have held on to their independence and their seats. So far.
Show of Force
In total then, the GOP conference in the U.S. Senate has been more stable over the last decade than I thought. It’s even been more stable than the conference between 1996-2006 and 2006-2016.
Although President Trump and other forces have not caused dramatic turnover since 2016, his successful efforts to oust senators deemed insufficiently loyal has caused the unusually stable membership to loyally support his administration.
Yes, of course, this is an imperfect way of assessing President Trump’s influence on the conference. I’ll discuss one caveat later in this piece. But it’s worth mentioning here that other forces can cause significant change in a conference’s membership over a decade: retirements unrelated to the president, national wave elections that wipe out many members, particular circumstances (e.g., scandals, seeking higher office) that cause members to move on.
In 1996 before the 1996 election, and in 2006 before the 2006 election.
In 2006 before the 2006 election, and in 2016 before the 2016 election.
In 1996, Bob Dole resigned and was replaced by Sheila Frahm who was defeated in a special election by Sam Brownback. This Congress (1995-1997) was also unusual in that Ben Nighthorse Campbell switched to the GOP, and Bob Packwood resigned.
Frist, Bennett, Grassley, Burns, Thomas, Inhofe, McCain, Warner, Kyl, Gregg, Hutchinson, Bond, Craig, DeWine, McConnell, Snowe, Hatch, Domenici, Lugar, Shelby, Santorum, Brownback, Stevens, Cochran, Lott.
Grassley, Vitter, Sessions, Inhofe, Cornyn, McCain, Thune, Isakson, Alexander, Graham, Murkowski, Crapo, Enzi, McConnell, Hatch, Roberts, Burr, Shelby, Collins, Cochran.
Cassidy, Grassley, Sullivan, Fischer, Lankford, Moran, Risch, Barrasso, Boozman, Cornyn, Hoeven, Thune, Ernst, Graham, Murkowski, Crapo, Lee, Rounds, McConnell, Paul, Wicker, Johnson, Moore, Daines, Collins, Tillis, Scott, Cotton.